We present an efficient and practical algorithm for the online prediction of discrete-time linear dynamical systems with a symmetric transition matrix. We circumvent the non-convex optimization problem using improper learning: carefully overparameterize the class of LDSs by a polylogarithmic factor, in exchange for convexity of the loss functions. From this arises a polynomial-time algorithm with a near-optimal regret guarantee, with an analogous sample complexity bound for agnostic learning. Our algorithm is based on a novel filtering technique, which may be of independent interest: we convolve the time series with the eigenvectors of a certain Hankel matrix.

We present an efficient and practical algorithm for the online prediction of discrete-time linear dynamical systems with a symmetric transition matrix. We circumvent the non-convex optimization problem using improper learning: carefully overparameterize the class of LDSs by a polylogarithmic factor, in exchange for convexity of the loss functions. From this arises a polynomial-time algorithm with a near-optimal regret guarantee, with an analogous sample complexity bound for agnostic learning. Our algorithm is based on a novel filtering technique, which may be of independent interest: we convolve the time series with the eigenvectors of a certain Hankel matrix.

Linear dynamical systems are a mainstay of control theory. This led to the breakthrough work many decades ago of Kalman filters, without which the moon landing would have been impossible. This paper explores the problem of online learning (in the regret model) of dynamical systems, and improves upon previous work in this setting that was restricted to the single input single output (SISO) case [HMR 16]. Unlike that paper, the present work shows that regret bounded learning of an LDS is possible without making assumptions on the spectral structure (polynomially bounded eigengap), and signal source limitations. The key new idea is a convex relation of the original non-convex problem, which as the paper shows, is "the central driver" of their approach.

We present an efficient and practical algorithm for the online prediction of discrete-time linear dynamical systems with a symmetric transition matrix. We circumvent the non-convex optimization problem using improper learning: carefully overparameterize the class of LDSs by a polylogarithmic factor, in exchange for convexity of the loss functions. From this arises a polynomial-time algorithm with a near-optimal regret guarantee, with an analogous sample complexity bound for agnostic learning. Our algorithm is based on a novel filtering technique, which may be of independent interest: we convolve the time series with the eigenvectors of a certain Hankel matrix.

We present an efficient and practical algorithm for the online prediction of discrete-time linear dynamical systems with a symmetric transition matrix. We circumvent the non-convex optimization problem using improper learning: carefully overparameterize the class of LDSs by a polylogarithmic factor, in exchange for convexity of the loss functions. From this arises a polynomial-time algorithm with a near-optimal regret guarantee, with an analogous sample complexity bound for agnostic learning. Our algorithm is based on a novel filtering technique, which may be of independent interest: we convolve the time series with the eigenvectors of a certain Hankel matrix. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.